India’s Economic Pulse: RBI Holds Rates, Growth Outlook Strengthens

wrote by PT

India’s economy continues its steady march forward, supported by policy stability, digital innovation, and improving global sentiment. Let’s take a closer look at today’s top economic developments shaping India’s financial landscape.

1. RBI Maintains Rates, Raises Growth Forecast

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.50%, maintaining a balanced stance between inflation control and economic growth.
GDP growth for FY 2025-26 has been revised upward to 6.8% from 6.5%.
Inflation is projected to ease to 2.6%, showing signs of price stability.
The current account deficit narrowed to just 0.2% of GDP, reflecting robust external balance.
💬 “India remains resilient to global uncertainty,” said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.

2. Trade Deficit Widens Amid Festive Gold Rush

    India’s trade deficit expanded to USD 28 billion in September 2025, driven largely by a surge in gold imports during the festive season.
Exports remained under mild pressure due to global demand slowdown and tariff tensions with the U.S.
However, strong domestic consumption continues to cushion India’s trade performance.

3. Rupee Steadies as RBI Steps In

    The Indian Rupee held steady around ₹88.68 per USD, with market participants noting RBI’s quiet intervention to maintain currency stability.
Bond yields remained range-bound, tracking upcoming inflation data and government borrowing plans.
This reflects the central bank’s strategy of stability-first amid external volatility.

4. Global & Institutional Outlook

    The World Bank has raised India’s FY26 growth forecast to 6.5%, citing strong fundamentals and digital growth.
India is expected to contribute one-fifth of global economic expansion in 2026, positioning itself as a key growth engine.
The Finance Ministry reaffirmed a continued push for capital expenditure and infrastructure-led growth.
“Capital investments will drive employment, manufacturing, and sustainable expansion,” stated Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

5. ONGC Tightens Belt: ₹5,000 Crore Cost-Saving Plan

    India’s oil giant ONGC is planning a ₹5,000 crore cost reduction by FY27, preparing for a scenario of lower crude prices (~$60/barrel).
This includes operational optimization, logistics restructuring, and digital transformation to sustain profitability in a shifting global energy market.

6. AI to Add $1.7 Trillion to India’s GDP by 2035

    A new NITI Aayog report predicts that Artificial Intelligence could add $1.7 trillion to India’s GDP by 2035.
With 87% of Indian enterprises adopting AI-driven solutions, sectors like banking, healthcare, and manufacturing are seeing major productivity gains.
AI is also expected to improve financial inclusion, education, and rural employment through smart technology integration.

📈 What to Watch Next

🔹 Trade negotiations with the U.S.
🔹 Inflation and monsoon outcomes
🔹 FDI & foreign investment inflows
🔹 Next RBI policy review
🔹 AI and digital infrastructure expansion

🧭 Conclusion

    India’s economic outlook remains positive yet pragmatic — supported by strong fundamentals, fiscal discipline, and innovation-led growth.

    As global challenges persist, the country’s focus on self-reliance, technology, and investment continues to fuel optimism in both domestic and international markets.